Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.448028 0.517521 0.592700 0.679880 0.777994 0.884797 1.009644
2025-05-25 0.338245 0.427213 0.530856 0.659795 0.815125 0.995397 1.219569
2025-06-01 0.270517 0.371893 0.498476 0.666455 0.881598 1.145825 1.492516
2025-06-08 0.214865 0.321460 0.463986 0.665304 0.938586 1.292407 1.780117
2025-06-15 0.181266 0.294125 0.455136 0.696171 1.041233 1.509719 2.184363
2025-06-22 0.140201 0.248087 0.412899 0.674921 1.070886 1.634695 2.482518
2025-06-29 0.110894 0.213841 0.381992 0.665235 1.115727 1.786244 2.835450
2025-07-06 0.086926 0.182950 0.350701 0.649859 1.149880 1.926369 3.187992
2025-07-13 0.073539 0.167745 0.342671 0.670918 1.244029 2.167388 3.716890
2025-07-20 0.060051 0.148986 0.324839 0.672311 1.306040 2.364871 4.198750
2025-07-27 0.050734 0.136385 0.316086 0.688583 1.395623 2.616456 4.791665
2025-08-03 0.043088 0.125401 0.308379 0.705559 1.488582 2.883066 5.434126
2025-08-10 0.033132 0.106249 0.280518 0.680037 1.503393 3.023097 5.888664
2025-08-17 0.024802 0.088221 0.250847 0.645295 1.495682 3.122689 6.284378
2025-08-24 0.019834 0.077638 0.236062 0.640171 1.546688 3.336233 6.905415
2025-08-31 0.015648 0.067671 0.220290 0.629851 1.585585 3.531266 7.511581
2025-09-07 0.013415 0.063232 0.218086 0.651684 1.697114 3.879801 8.438164
2025-09-14 0.010158 0.053470 0.198286 0.625737 1.698466 4.007879 8.952555
2025-09-21 0.007920 0.046404 0.184325 0.612040 1.725919 4.192169 9.593527
2025-09-28 0.006080 0.039871 0.169958 0.594122 1.740525 4.350514 10.195678
2025-10-05 0.005186 0.037239 0.167831 0.610635 1.842195 4.706510 11.231079
2025-10-12 0.004193 0.033409 0.160275 0.609538 1.899027 4.968652 12.090824
2025-10-19 0.003546 0.031047 0.157453 0.622538 1.994576 5.327121 13.182820